Over the past year, the rapid rise in oil production from the Americas — led by the United States, Guyana, and Brazil — has been a major source of frustration for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), as it has sought to rebalance the market and push oil prices higher.

OPEC’s efforts to maintain influence over global oil supply and prices now risk further erosion amid US intervention in Venezuela and President Donald Trump’s idea of taking control of the oil industry in the world’s largest country by crude reserves.

Venezuela, an OPEC member, holds an estimated 303 billion barrels of crude oil reserves — more than any other major producer in the group, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, or the United Arab Emirates.

Analysts argue that US control over Venezuelan reserves, combined with investment by US companies to revive the South American country’s struggling oil sector, could decisively tilt global energy market dynamics in Washington’s favor, undermining OPEC’s influence over global oil markets.

Any meaningful recovery in Venezuelan oil supply — which currently accounts for less than 1% of global daily demand — would require billions of dollars in investment, potentially exceeding $100 billion, and many years before tangible results emerge. This assumes the establishment of robust new legal frameworks and strong security guarantees to reassure investors that they will not again face asset seizures or nationalization.

President Trump’s proposal to involve US companies in the recovery of Venezuela’s oil sector failed to generate enthusiasm among senior US oil executives during a meeting held at the White House on Friday.

Despite Trump praising Venezuelan oil as a source of “enormous wealth” for the industry and “great wealth” for the American people, executives responded coolly.

Exxon Mobil CEO Darren Woods told Trump: “Our assets there were seized twice, and you can imagine that going back a third time would require very significant changes compared with what we’ve seen historically.”

He added: “If you look at the current legal and commercial frameworks in Venezuela, they are not investable.”

Regardless of Venezuela’s future investability, US control over its oil industry would shift the balance of power in oil markets, granting Washington greater long-term influence over supply. This would likely weaken the influence of OPEC and the broader OPEC+ alliance, which includes Russia and Kazakhstan, over market balances and oil prices.

Analysts at JPMorgan said in a report that “this shift could give the United States greater influence over oil markets, potentially keeping prices within historically low ranges, strengthening energy security, and reshaping the balance of power in global energy markets.”

An oil price of $50 per barrel — a level Trump has targeted since taking office a year ago — would place significant pressure on oil revenues and non-oil investment projects across major OPEC producers, particularly Saudi Arabia.

The kingdom, the world’s largest crude oil exporter, is betting that any Venezuelan recovery remains years away and will require massive investment, according to sources familiar with Saudi thinking.

Other Gulf producers are also betting that reduced Venezuelan oil supplies to China could increase the share of Middle Eastern crude in Beijing’s imports, according to Gulf delegates.

This emerging global order, in which the United States seeks to control the oil resources of a third country, is reshaping market dynamics and creating additional challenges for OPEC and OPEC+.

President Trump wants Venezuelan oil flows to help push oil and energy prices even lower.

Prolonged low oil prices would deal a blow to oil revenues and the economies of all OPEC+ countries, potentially constraining their ability to manage supply and prices in the face of an unpredictable US president. OPEC+ will now have to factor in an additional variable when making production policy decisions, and assess how high prices can rise without risking a backlash from President Trump.

US stock indexes declined during Tuesday’s trading following the release of inflation data, alongside the start of the corporate earnings season.

Data released earlier today showed that the US consumer price index held steady at 2.7% year-on-year in December, while the core index, which excludes food and energy costs, came in below expectations at 2.6%.

Meanwhile, the reporting season for corporate quarterly earnings for the final quarter of 2025 has begun, typically led by banks. JPMorgan Chase reported revenues and profits that exceeded market expectations.

In market trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.6%, or 316 points, to 49,270 points as of 17:47 GMT. The broader S&P 500 declined by 0.2%, or 16 points, to 6,960 points, while the Nasdaq Composite edged down by less than 0.1%, or 2 points, to 23,731 points.

Palladium prices declined during Tuesday’s trading, pressured by profit-taking after gaining more than 3% in the previous session, driven by continued positive expectations for strong demand for the industrial metal this year.

Amid sustained strength in platinum group metals (PGMs) demand, BofA Securities’ Global Research division raised its 2026 price forecast for platinum to $2,450 per ounce from a previous estimate of $1,825, and lifted its palladium forecast to $1,725 per ounce from $1,525.

Key takeaways from the bank’s weekly Global Metals Markets report dated January 9 showed that disruptions to PGM trade flows caused by trade disputes continue to keep markets tight, particularly the platinum market. The report also noted that Chinese platinum imports are providing additional price support.

While a supply response is likely, the bank expects it to be gradual, citing what it described as “production discipline and inelastic mine supply.”

These forecasts come as platinum and palladium prices continue to rise this year, with spot prices reaching $2,446 per ounce for platinum and $1,826 per ounce for palladium.

As a result, both metals have exceeded the bank’s previous forecasts, prompting an upward revision to price estimates.

The bank said in comments to Mining Weekly that it continues to expect platinum to outperform palladium, supported by persistent market deficits.

It added that US tariffs have had a clear impact on several metals markets, and that the risk of additional tariffs continues to hang over PGMs.

This has been one of the factors behind rising inventories at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, alongside a surge in exchange-for-physical (EFP) transactions.

Palladium EFP activity has been particularly strong, driven largely by growing concerns that the United States could impose tariffs on Russian palladium, amid ongoing anti-dumping and countervailing duty investigations.

In this context, the bank noted that the US Department of Commerce has estimated dumping margins for unwrought Russian palladium at around 828%.

It added that the imposition of tariffs on currently undisclosed Russian volumes could push domestic prices higher, given Russia’s role as a key palladium supplier.

Chinese import demand adds further price support

Outside the United States, China has provided additional support for prices. Early in 2025, a sharp recovery in jewelry-sector activity attracted more ounces into the Chinese market. With gold prices at record highs, this development is particularly significant, as substituting just 1% of gold jewelry demand could widen the platinum deficit by around one million ounces, equivalent to roughly 10% of total supply.

In the second half of 2025, the launch of physically backed platinum and palladium futures contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFEX) also provided additional price support.

These contracts represent China’s first domestic hedging tools for PGMs, are denominated in renminbi, and allow for physical delivery of both bars and sponge. The bank said that access to physical liquidity was a key driver behind the December price rally.

China’s palladium imports have also quadrupled since September compared with last year, a move the bank described as difficult to justify on fundamental grounds given the ongoing phase-out of internal combustion engines. It suggested the surge is largely linked to the launch of palladium futures contracts on GFEX.

Gradual supply response expected

With PGM prices now trading above marginal production costs and incentive price levels, markets are closely watching for a supply response.

The bank said it expects any response to be measured, noting that producer margins — particularly in South Africa and North America — have been under sustained pressure over the past two years, which may encourage caution when expanding output.

New supply additions are also likely to emerge only gradually, reflecting the long lead times required to move from development to stable production levels.

Many ongoing projects represent incremental expansions or phased output increases, rather than sources of rapid and large-scale supply growth.

On the supply side, production issues in South Africa tightened the platinum market in 2025. Mine output in the country fell by around 5% year-on-year between January and October 2025, mainly due to operational problems such as flooding and plant maintenance in the first quarter. The bank expects a modest recovery in South African platinum production this year, but not enough to eliminate the market deficit.

In Russia, the world’s largest palladium supplier, production has also faced challenges, as Norilsk Nickel transitioned to new mining equipment and dealt with changes in ore grades. As a result, the company’s platinum output fell 7% year-on-year and palladium output declined 6% in the first nine months of 2025. As these temporary disruptions ease, Russian PGM production is expected to recover this year, potentially limiting the pace of further palladium price gains.

While higher prices could incentivize additional supply, the bank believes incremental increases are more likely to come from mine life extensions and project restarts rather than rapid, large-scale capacity expansions.

In practice, most new supply requires several years to move from construction to full production, and many projects currently under development are expansions or phased increases, not immediate sources of large additional volumes.

The bank noted that two major new projects moving toward production — Ivanhoe Mines’ Platreef project and Wesizwe’s Bakubung project in South Africa — are expected to add a combined 150,000 ounces of platinum and 100,000 ounces of palladium this year.

Other expansion projects remain longer-term and dependent on final investment decisions. Among them is Valterra Platinum’s Sandsloot underground project at the Mogalakwena mine, where an investment decision is not expected before 2027, with underground ore extraction potentially starting after 2030.

In trading, March palladium futures were down 0.7% at $1,926.5 per ounce at 15:45 GMT.

Bitcoin edged slightly lower during Asian trading on Tuesday, underperforming equity market gains, as caution ahead of key US inflation data and rising global geopolitical tensions kept traders away from high-risk assets.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency slipped 0.2% to $91,894.6 by 00:33 ET (05:33 GMT).

Bitcoin has struggled to generate meaningful gains since late 2025 and into early 2026, amid broadly subdued sentiment across cryptocurrency markets. Increased investor focus on artificial intelligence and technology stocks has also diverted liquidity away from the digital asset space.

Inflation data in focus as rate outlook and Fed uncertainty persist

Market attention on Tuesday was squarely focused on the US Consumer Price Index for December, due later in the day.

The data are expected to show headline inflation holding steady at 2.7% year-on-year, while core inflation is forecast to tick slightly higher.

Any signs that inflationary pressures remain sticky could further reduce the Federal Reserve’s incentive to cut interest rates in the coming months.

The Federal Reserve has also remained a major source of market uncertainty after Chair Jerome Powell revealed earlier this week that he had received threats of legal action from the US Department of Justice.

Powell said that while the threats were formally linked to renovation work at the Federal Reserve’s headquarters, he believed they were intended to pressure the central bank into responding to Washington’s demands for interest-rate cuts.

His remarks raised fresh concerns over the Fed’s independence, particularly as US President Donald Trump prepares to announce his nominee to succeed Powell. Trump has repeatedly pressured the Fed to cut rates and has publicly criticized Powell for resisting those demands.

Cryptocurrency prices today: Altcoins fluctuate as geopolitics weigh on sentiment

Other cryptocurrency prices moved modestly lower in line with Bitcoin, as appetite for speculative assets remained weak amid escalating geopolitical tensions.

Rising unrest in Iran, coupled with fears of potential US intervention, unsettled markets and pushed oil prices higher. In Asia, the diplomatic standoff between China and Japan showed no signs of easing.

These factors kept investors anchored in safe-haven assets such as gold, while technology stocks received additional support from continued optimism surrounding artificial intelligence.

AI has also played a key role in weakening the historical correlation between cryptocurrencies and tech stocks, with equities significantly outperforming Bitcoin in 2025.

Among other digital assets, Ether, the second-largest cryptocurrency, fell 0.7% to $3,136.69. XRP declined 0.7%, while Binance Coin (BNB) rose 0.2%.